Displacement crises to watch

The West Africa region continues to face several humanitarian crises, ranging from the decade-long insurgency in the Lake Chad region; to the criminal violence in northern Nigeria; the violence in the tri-border region of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger; all combined with various climatic shocks and extreme weather events such as floods. Toward the end of 2020, these various contexts saw a surge of violence, both in terms of the intensity of the attacks as well as geographical spread of the violence. 

Burkina Faso is considered the world’s fastest growing displacement crisis. As of September 2020, the number of internally displaced people (IDPs) reached 1 million, meaning that approximately 1 in 20 persons in the country is internally displaced.  Inter-communal clashes, military operations, and attacks by various armed groups have been on the rise since 2020, as have attacks against civilians, specifically IDPs. 

The situations in Mali, Niger, and Nigeria are equally alarming, with a worsening security situation regionally leading to increased internal and cross-border displacements. The escalation of violence leading to displacement in these countries is complex and involves several actors: local armed militias, international extremist groups, military actors, and international forces. 

In 2021, there will be a series of elections (local, regional, presidential), including in Burkina Faso, Benin, Chad, and Niger. The most recent deadly attack in Niger’s Tillaberi region a week following the Presidential elections on Dec 27, 2020, raises concerns over future waves of violence and subsequent internal displacements across the  Sahelian belt, and beyond. 

The region continues to also face high levels of food insecurity, and there have been significant fears around IDPs being faced with numerous famines, whilst battling the continued threat of future displacements.  

Related spotlight: The Sahel – A deepening crisis of regional dimensions

The year 2021 starts with a Northeast Monsoon season intensified by the La Niña weather phenomenon. The first weeks of the year have already seen tens of thousands of people being displaced by repetitive flooding and landslides in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

The floods come this year as a double blow to the region given a surge in coronavirus cases that is further complicating rescue operations and aggravating the already scattered livelihoods of affected families. What’s more, many of the countries most affected were already grappling with the impacts of severe storms in 2020, that led to the displacement of tens of thousands, and in some cases millions of people.  

Typhoon Vamco was the 21st storm to hit the Philippines, and 13th storm to hit Viet Nam in 2020. While disaster preparedness played an important role, leading to massive pre-emptive evacuations, the damage to essential infrastructure including homes from this and other storms was enormous. A total of 305,000 homes in the in Philippines and 214,000 homes in Viet Nam, had been recorded as damaged or destroyed as of December 2020.  

Important lessons can be drawn from 2020 to prepare better for the risk of disaster displacement this year in Asia. For example, Cyclone Amphan, a category 5 storm at its peak, which made landfall in India and Bangladesh in May 2020, prompted these countries to make more than 3 million life-saving pre-emptive evacuations.

Related spotlight: Cyclone Amphan: The largest displacement event in the first half of the year

With Covid-19 also at their doorstep, the countries: 

• repurposed public spaces to serve as shelters to reduce crowding and enable more evacuations; 
• engaged different stakeholders in providing supplies, logistics and back-up shelters; 
• protected responders from the risk of infection; and 
• increased access to shelters for high-risk groups such as elderly people.  

With La Niña we can expect wetter than normal conditions for many countries spanning Southeast Asia, in particular. As such, investing in unique methods to mitigate risks associated with disaster displacement during a global pandemic will remain a key priority.  

The total number of IDPs in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province (located in the north of the country, bordering Tanzania) increased four-fold in 2020. The security situation in the northern province is deteriorating and violence against civilians was on the rise in 2020. There are currently over half a million IDPs in the country.

While the security situation continued to deteriorate throughout 2020, the country is still dealing with the long-term impacts of historic cyclones Idai and Kenneth which hit the country in early 2019. As of November 2020 – or 18 months after both cyclones – more than 80,000 people were still living in a situation of internal displacement, mainly located in resettlement sites. 

In the last days of 2020, tropical storm Chalane made landfall on the southern African country, further displacing thousands of people, some already displaced by the violence in the north or by weather events (such as cyclones), and sometimes by both.  

Armed attacks have continued unabated in recent months in Cabo Delgado, and internal displacement trends continue to increase, with people fleeing rural areas to find refuge in urban centres. 

The country will continue to face several factors that will have dire impacts on its internally displaced population:

• climate shocks,
• food insecurity,
• violence,
• drought, and 
• the consequences of repeated displacements. 

The question in 2021 is: could this internal conflict have a wider impact and spread to neighbouring countries?

Ten years after the onset of the Syrian Civil War, armed conflict continues to displace thousands of civilians in the country. 2020 began with significant waves of violence, particularly in Northern Syria, where the offensive on the governorate of Idlib displaced 960,000 people.

Armed attacks continued to trigger new displacements in the aftermath of the offensive, but overall, there was a relative reduction of violence in the ensuing months of 2020. The economic downturn in the country, coupled with unemployment, lack of livelihoods, and the socio-economic impact of Covid-19, became more prominent drivers of internal displacement later in the year.  

In 2021, several key developments and how they play out, could help stabilise the country or further increase violence and insecurity in the region. They could also increase the risk of new displacements or support IDPs to find durable solutions to their displacement.

The conflict in Syria has been shaped by the policies of domestic and foreign actors, and the future of the conflict therefore largely depends on the actions of the many players involved. If ceasefires are upheld, there could be a reduction in violence and conflict-induced displacements. New sieges or offensives, however, could further deteriorate an already dire humanitarian situation. Additionally, the Syrian Constitutional Committee will meet for its fifth session in late January in Geneva to draft a new Constitution that could help shape the future of the country in significant ways. 

Meanwhile, while there has been a relative reduction of violence in the country, displacement due to conflict continues. Prospects of peace remain fragile and IDPs continue to be displaced, often multiple times.